U.S. Concerned about China Military Buildup

I meant to write about this on Sunday, but have been involved in a military exercise.  The last few posts have been on government time, which I'm technically not supposed to do - but its hard to pass up a chance to skewer Britney Spears (in other words, I loathe her so much I was able to crank out the previous post in less than 5 minutes, whereas something a little more thoughtful and less visceral usually takes me an hour or so).  But enough of beating that dead, low rider-wearing horse - let's get on to an issue worthy of deep thought!

That said, while I normally post my commentary BEFORE posting the related article(s), in this case I think I need to post the background first to build context for my comments:

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said on Sunday the U.S. government, not just the Pentagon, had concerns about China's military buildup, but that it did not necessarily constitute a threat.  Rice also said she had prodded China to engage with the Dalai Lama, Tibet's spiritual leader who lives in exile in India and who she said was not a threat.

"There is no doubt that we have concerns about the size and pace of the Chinese military buildup and it's not just the Pentagon," Rice told a news conference in Beijing after meeting Chinese President Hu Jintao, Premier Wen Jiabao and Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing.  "That does not mean that we view China as, quote-unquote, a threat," she said, adding the Chinese military buildup raised concerns about the balance of power in the region.  Still, there were more positive elements in Sino-U.S. relations than negative, she said. 

Rice's comments came as the Pentagon worked with several other U.S. government agencies on a report on China's growing military clout. The Defense Department has no target date in mind for the release of the 2005 annual report, officially required to be delivered to Congress by March 1.

Of course, the current "Axis of Evil" lists Iran, North Korea and Syria (originally Iraq) as the biggest goons on the planet.  We could debate for hours on the merits of the current club members, as well as potential additions.  But while at least Iran and North Korea get all the press, China--the real big Panda on the block--seems to slip through the cracks.  But should we be afraid?  Well, let's look at some data points I hastily through together:

• China is building up their military forces at a rapid pace; indeed, Beijing can field an army larger than all the US military services combined.  And while their equipment isn't quite up to snuff compared to our inventory, it certainly isn't a force equipped with second-rate gear (here's a quick citation; its a little dated but still a good overview of China's capabilities http://www.comw.org/cmp/fulltext/iddschina.html)

• Think we're thirsty for oil?  China's annual oil consumption growth is roughly 7.5%, which is 7 time greater than the US.  According to the IAGS, China will equal US oil consumption by 2030 (http://www.iags.org/china.htm.  BTW, I read a National Geographic article that stated China may exceed the us in oil consumption before the end of this decade; however, I'm too lazy right now to find the article).  Can you say competition for a finite resource? 

• As a result of economic reforms, China's GDP has quadrupled since 1978. In 2004, with a GDP of 7.262 trillion USD mainland China has the second largest economy in the world and is regarded as one of the fastest-growing in the world--the blessing a curse here is China is both a trade partner and competitor (for what it's worth I personally made a killing on a Chinese stock back in '03).

Disparate data points yes; but allow me to tie them together.  First we have the military build-up, and the simple fact China is building up mostly for the same reasons we do:  defense against perceived threats.  That said, I'll give you three guesses on who the top threat is... and if your say the US and/or Taiwan, you win the prize (China's historic relations with India haven't been too peachy, either).  In addition, China is or soon will be competing for resources on the same scale the US is, which really could cause economic tensions down the road.

However, its the latter point which I think will keep tensions to a low boiling point, at least in the near term.  Point taken the US and China see each other as rivals; but they also see each other as large markets (note we're China's 2nd largest trading partner behind the EU by a thin margin;$96 billion/yr to the EU's $100 B/YR).  My take is both China and the US have too much to lose and too little to gain by coming to blows.  As a professional analysts I understand fully that ultimately states will do what the perceive as their best interests, even an irrational act by outside observer's standards; but I see life at the GDP level as simply too good right now to do something strategically stupid.

Comments

[Tom]

Its true that they have a large army. But they cant get it here.

[dligsdoifg]

I hope China takes over the world

[AndyG]

It may be strategically stupid for China to take an overtly aggressive stance now, but would a weaker US economy or a "percieved" weakness in our military or foreign policy possibly push them to be more agressive in their stance in an effort to establish themselves as the "new" world power?

I think China may value our "partnership" less if our economy drops our value as a market as compared to the EU or if the congress passes prohibative tarriffs or trade barriers.

Also, I think any signal of "weakness" or vacilation in our foreign policy may give China the last push it needs to call what it thinks is our bluff over Taiwan.

[AndyG]

I don't think they can get their army "here" easily, but most of Asia and Eastern Europe is VERY reachable and a war of attrition is a messy thing.

Don't fight punch for punch with a guy who has ten arms compared to your two.

[superman]

Did you know that I took my dog for a walk, watch him do his business, picked it up, and then smeared it on the handle of a newpaper box? I didn't like the newpaper (tabloid style) but I feel guilty...
Should I?